muscovy delenda est
For good. Otherwise it will rise again and start new wars.
Spoiler: Prigozhin exposed the incompetence and weakness of the muscovy regime. He advanced unhindered until 200 km from Moscovy. On the way, he overtook several military establishments. The troops in those, including Rosgvardia, joined him or remained passive. That shows that Prigozhin is supported by parts of the muscovy military and putin’s security forces. Prigozhin is also supported by parts of the population. People in Rostov-on-Don did not organise demonstrations in support of the putin, they cheered on Prigozhin.
Large parts of the military and the population support Prigozhin because they share his opinions that the war against Ukraine is inefficient. They would like to see more dead Ukrainians, more mass murders, more gang rapes, more deportations, more forced adoptions of Ukrainain children, and more indiscriminate bombings of Ukrainian schools, elderly homes, and hospitals.
putin may be overthrown by a miltary coup that has strong popular support. But the successor will most likely be just as bad. Therefore, muscovy must be destroyed.
Source: CNN.
We don’t know why Prigozhin turned back or what is in the deal with the little person in the bunker. But what we know tell us that putin’s position is now weaker than ever and that it always has been weaker than we’ve understood.
During the short civil war;
Prigozhin drove along the highways until 200 km from moscow;
he overtook two large cities, Rostov-on-Don and Voronezj on the way;
he overtook several military establishments with troops;
he wasn’t stopped by the 3rd Motor Rifle Division in Boguchar, the 106th Airborne Division in Tula, and neither the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division, nor the 4th Guards Tank Division in moscov showed up to prepare defense, and he wasn’t stopped by the Security forces and other troops that putin has created to prevent uprisings;
Prigozhin’s troops downed a number of helicopters and some sorts of strategic air command plane while the regular muscovy’s airforce managed to miss the highway it attempted to bomb but hit an oil depot;
putin held a speech, during which he couldn’t hide his desperation though he managed to not burst out in tears, denouncing Prigozhin a traitor and promised harsh punishments and a forceful response;
putin backed down. All charges of treason were dropped and neither Prigozhin nor any of his troops are to be prosecuted (unless he changes his mind when he realizes how lame he appears);
During this debacle, no spontaneous protests against Prigozhin or demonstrations for putin were organised. On the contrary, people in Rostov-on-Don celebrated Prigozhin.
putin was humiliated beyond belief. His regime is weaker than we thought and judging by the reluctance of his military to intervene, there might be support for more attempts to topple him.
Implications of the humilation of putin
The putin crisis gives rise to implications for the short run, and the long run.
The short run implications refer to how to help Ukraine win the war. As already mentioned, putin backed down. He didn’t escalate. And he won’t escalate if he faces defeat against Ukraine. He will negotiate to save his skin. This thread by Michael McFaul summarises it nicely. The implications for putin’s war against Ukraine is clear. We should provide more and better weapons to Ukraine, allowing her to hit military targets and supply lines inside muscovy.
The putin crisis’ long run implications concern policies to destroy muscovy. For good. putin’s war is not just his war. It’s the muscovite people’s war. The muscovites share his revanschism. They believe that traitors who cooperated with the West caused the collapse of Soviet.
The fact that Prigozhin’s troops were not under any serious threat towards moscow shows that the regular muscovy troops were either reluctant to intervene, or unable to do so efficiently or both. Some even switched side. That is however no reason to celebrate. Prigozhin rebelled because he didn’t get enough of supplies to kill Ukrainians and because he didn’t think that putin’s regular forces were efficient enough.
The population in Rostov-on-Don shared this view. They celebrated Prigozhin. They want more Ukrainains to be executed, raped, tortured, and deported. So do the large and influential ultra-nationalist organisations in muscovy. Some of them support putin and some support Prigozhin. They agree on killing Ukrainains.
This confirms what Ilona Sologoub and I wrote in this op-ed on VoxUkraine.
But any hopes that this will be enough to deter the Kremlin to attack Ukraine again in the future are pure fantasies. Putin’s war is supported by the Russian elites and people. After decades of propaganda, Russians not only believe that democracies in the West want to destroy Russia, but also that Russia is the beacon of civilization. They believe that Russian culture and values should be imposed on the “decadent West.” Hundreds of thousands of Russians who fled the country to avoid mobilisation did so out of fear of being killed on the battlefields, not because they oppose the war. Mass demonstrations against the war never materialised even from Russians outside of Russia.
And.
Whether Putin dies or is replaced is of no consequence. He will be replaced by someone with the same imperialistic ambitions. Russia is aiming for a long-term war or a series of wars against the West.
This means that as a minimum, there has to be a regime change. This needs to be accompanied by a demiltarisation of muscovy. muscovy should also be decolonised and sovereignty restored to non-muscovites.
How should this be done? I don’t know. I just know that if nothing is done, muscovy will rise again and start new wars in the future. It will probably not affect me, because I’ll be dead by then, and perhaps not you. But it will affect our grandchildren.